I’ve consistently found Ahrefs traffic estimation inaccurate, often incredibly so, and off by thousands. And why? Because it’s a third-party estimation tool. It has no access to actual website data like Google Analytics, but companies are treating it like it’s the real deal, and it’s all based on keywords.

For example, my website gets an average 500-1000 views a day. Some articles alone get 300 views in day. The actual data from WordPress is below. This is the real traffic, from real data.

According Ahrefs, they think I get 1000 views month! You can obviously see how Ahrefs traffic estimation is inaccurate by a good amount.

What Makes the Ahrefs Traffic Estimation So Inaccurate?

Ahrefs is a website that offers a comprehensive SEO toolset used by marketers and website owners to improve their search engine rankings and online visibility. It offers features like keyword research, backlink analysis, content exploration, rank tracking, and site audits.

Ahrefs uses keywords to estimate how much traffic they think you will get, based on its ranking position, monthly search volume, and an estimated CTR for that position. They then add up the sum of those keywords to get your estimated traffic. Again, it’s ESTIMATED based on keywords and an algorithm.

They do not take into account things like your subscribers, social media or regular readers. And not every keyword is in their database. They don’t take into account any of the ways you promote your website and bring in traffic and solely base it on things they have programs to help you with like keyword research and SEO.

Any good SEO specialist will tell you the same thing, actual traffic can also vary due to factors such as seasonality, changes in user behavior, and specific website characteristics that are not fully captured by the Ahrefs traffic estimation tool. My own website traffic usually triples in October due to the cosplay contact, but will that reflect on Ahrefs? Most likely not.

Here’s How the Ahrefs Process Works in More Detail:

1. Keyword Data and Search Volume

Ahrefs has an extensive database of keywords and their respective search volumes. It collects this data from various sources, including third-party providers and their own web crawlers.

2. Ranking Positions

Ahrefs determines where a website ranks for each of these keywords by using its crawler to scan the web. The crawler identifies the pages that rank for specific keywords and their positions on search engine results pages (SERPs).

3. Click-Through Rates (CTR)

For each keyword, Ahrefs applies a Click-Through Rate (CTR) model based on historical data and industry standards. This model estimates the percentage of searchers who are likely to click on a result based on its position in the SERPs. For example, a page ranking first is likely to receive a higher percentage of clicks compared to a page ranking fifth.

4. Traffic Calculation

Ahrefs combines the estimated CTR with the search volume for each keyword to calculate the potential traffic a website might receive. For instance, if a keyword has a search volume of 10,000 searches per month and a webpage ranks first with an estimated CTR of 30%, Ahrefs would estimate that the page receives approximately 3,000 visits from that keyword each month.

5. Summing Up Keyword Traffic

This process is repeated for all the keywords a website ranks for. Ahrefs aggregates the estimated traffic from each keyword to provide an overall traffic estimate for the website.

Real Blogs Have a Real Audience

This post probably won’t make a difference, but honestly I’m so annoyed every time some company tells me, “Your traffic is too low according to Ahrefs.” I just wanted to be able to send them this link for reference because I’m tired of pointing out how ridiculous it is to judge a website’s traffic based off these parameters.

Real blogs that write for an actual audience aren’t written by bots, and they shouldn’t be measured by them either. But nobody is stopping with their Ahrefs quotes anytime soon.

Why People Continue to Use Ahrefs

Ahrefs feels more accurate than other traffic estimation tools in some ways, but it’s still just an educated estimate, and often far off from what’s shown in Google Analytics or Search Console.

If you’ve ever popped a website into Ahrefs and raised an eyebrow at the traffic number, you’re not alone. While many SEOs use Ahrefs to estimate traffic, it’s no secret that the numbers can be wildly different from what site owners see in their actual analytics. So why do people still rely on it?

It’s Not Perfect, But It’s Consistent

Ahrefs doesn’t promise perfect traffic data—it provides estimates based on rankings, search volume, and click-through behavior. But here’s the catch: even if the numbers aren’t spot-on, the tool is consistently inaccurate in a way that can still reveal trends. If one blog post gets twice the estimated traffic of another, it may not mean it gets 10K vs. 5K visits—it might be more like 1K vs. 500—but the relationship holds value.

Good for Competitive Comparison (Even If the Numbers Are Off)

Most users don’t rely on Ahrefs traffic data to track their own site—they use it to compare against competitors. Even if the absolute numbers are inflated or lowballed, you can still get a decent sense of which competitors are getting more organic traction and what content is driving it.

Page-Level Insights Still Matter

Ahrefs may not nail total traffic, but its page-level traffic estimates can help you identify top-performing content—on your site or someone else’s. Even with inaccuracies, it gives a rough picture of what topics or formats are generating clicks.

Convenience and Context

While Google Search Console is more accurate, it’s limited to your own verified sites. Ahrefs offers an easy way to peek into any site. That ability to audit competitors or spot keyword gaps at scale is why people keep it in their toolkit, despite its flaws.

Bottom Line: Use With a Grain of Salt

Ahrefs is a helpful directional tool—not a traffic truth-teller. It’s best used for spotting trends, comparing sites, and understanding the broader SEO landscape—not for exact visit counts. If precision matters, cross-reference with first-party tools like Google Analytics or Search Console.